Build the Future:
A Return to Tangibles Sub-Theme
© 2026 Sarmaya Partners, LLC
March 2, 2026
Investing in the Pillars of Economic Growth
Bottom Line Upfront: In our view, Build the Future is a multi-year investment opportunity driven by the world building new infrastructure, power grids, industrial capacity, data centers, and transportation networks. The materials central to this buildout will be copper, steel (iron ore), and platinum. Additionally, industrial companies and services will be essential in enabling these tangible investments.
This is why Build the Future is a core sub-theme within the Return to Tangibles commodity super-cycle secular theme.
Key Takeaways
- Commodities remain near a historical bottom relative to the S&P 500 (as shown in the attached chart), even as the world enters a more capex-heavy era where physical inputs matter.
- Copper is the centerpiece metal of Build the Future. Forecasts show demand rising against constrained supply; meanwhile, discovery has been weak and the time from discovery to production remains measured in decades, not quarters (see attached copper charts)
- The broader “builder’s stack” (platinum, iron ore/steel inputs, industrials, and shipping) has a similar setup: structurally important end-demand, while supply is constrained by capital discipline, complexity, regulation, and the long lead times required to add capacity.
It’s tempting to think of “building the future” as futuristic. In practice, it often looks like something far more similar: wires, pipes, transformers, steel, machines, and ships. The subtheme focuses on exposures that sit at the center of real-economy investment.
Investing in the Pillars of Economic Growth
Bottom Line Upfront: In our view, Build the Future is a multi-year investment opportunity driven by the world building new infrastructure, power grids, industrial capacity, data centers, and transportation networks. The materials central to this buildout will be copper, steel (iron ore), and platinum. Additionally, industrial companies and services will be essential in enabling these tangible investments.
This is why Build the Future is a core sub-theme within the Return to Tangibles commodity super-cycle secular theme.
Key Takeaways
- Commodities remain near a historical bottom relative to the S&P 500 (as shown in the attached chart), even as the world enters a more capex-heavy era where physical inputs matter.
- Copper is the centerpiece metal of Build the Future. Forecasts show demand rising against constrained supply; meanwhile, discovery has been weak and the time from discovery to production remains measured in decades, not quarters (see attached copper charts)
- The broader “builder’s stack” (platinum, iron ore/steel inputs, industrials, and shipping) has a similar setup: structurally important end-demand, while supply is constrained by capital discipline, complexity, regulation, and the long lead times required to add capacity.
It’s tempting to think of “building the future” as futuristic. In practice, it often looks like something far more similar: wires, pipes, transformers, steel, machines, and ships. The subtheme focuses on exposures that sit at the center of real-economy investment.
Forces Fueling the Current Commodity Super-Cycle
The following chart showing commodities at a historical bottom relative to the S&P500 is an important setup. It suggests that even after a period of renewed interest in tangible assets, relative pricing still reflects skepticism, until fundamentals force a re-rating.
Commodities at historical bottom relative to S&P 500
Source: Macrobond; NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), S&P Global As of 12/31/2025
In multiple commodity value chains, the supply response is often limited by permitting and project complexity and long development cycles. This is one of the defining characteristics of Return to Tangibles: the world can want more physical stuff, but it can’t produce it on demand.
Copper: The Artery of Building the Future
Copper demand is expected to continue rising, turning the market into a deficit in the coming years. Copper demand climbs when the world does the basics at scale, expanding and modernizing power grids, building and repairing housing and infrastructure, adding industrial capacity while electrifying equipment, and investing in resilience through redundancy, durability and modernization.
Copper demand expected to outstrip supply by six million tons
Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Demand is based on BNEF’s 2024 Transition Metals Outlook. Total supply includes secondary supply. Here only fabricated scrap is included. Collected scrap was excluded due to its high variability in quality or grade, which limits its consistent use in recycling. The above chart includes an estimated projection and is for informational purposes only. Projections are inherently limited and not guaranteed.
In the meantime, a second constraint sits upstream of production: the discovery pipeline and major discoveries have become scarce. The industry can increase spending, drill more meters, and consolidate assets, but it cannot manufacture tier-one deposits on schedule.
Copper discoveries are low amid rising demand
Source: Sarmaya Partners, Bloomberg; S&P Global
As of 12/31/2025
That matters when copper deficits are rarely solved through incremental additions; when the system is short, the adjustment mechanism typically comes through sustained price signals that justify large, capital-intensive projects, or through multi-year periods of undersupply that force demand to adapt via substitution, efficiency gains, or delayed projects.
Finally, copper is not a “quick fix” commodity because time is the binding constraint. Evidence on project timelines shows that the average duration from discovery to first production has lengthened materially in recent periods, approaching roughly 18 years in the latest data. Even in a stronger price environment, supply cannot respond quickly enough to close a structural gap on a short horizon. The result is a long-duration dynamic: a multi-year build cycle colliding with slow-moving supply, turning copper into a recurring pressure point.
Average time from copper discovery to production
Source: Sarmaya Partners, Bloomberg; S&P Global
As of Dec 2024
Platinum: An Industrial Precious Metal with Tightening Fundamentals
Platinum is often framed as a “precious” metal, but it is also an industrial metal, primarily in the automotive sector. The shiny white metal had sold off in recent years as the market erroneously saw a large, rapid and linear rise in EV sales and adoption, and concluded platinum demand would decline.
Global industrial platinum supply-demand balance: Deficit likely to persist
Source: Sarmaya Partners, WPIC, SFA Oxford, Johnson Matthey, Bloomberg Intelligence; As of Dec 2025.
The above chart includes an estimated projection and is for informational purposes only. Projections are inherently limited and not guaranteed.
However, the last two years have shown that 1) declining EV sales in North America as consumers paused their adoption rates, and 2) platinum is used in hybrids that became a stepping-stone technology. Lower prices disincentivized production and the consequent inventory drawdown began pushing prices higher in 2025.
The tightening reflects constrained primary output (including South African disruptions and maintenance) and limited recycling responsiveness outside China, alongside steady industrial demand supported by capacity expansion in sectors such as chemicals, fiberglass, biofuels, and synthetic fuels.
In a Build the Future framework, platinum matters because it sits in the enablement layer of industrial activity: it is difficult to substitute in high-performance applications, tied to regulation and throughput, and sourced from a concentrated production base.
Iron Ore, Steel, and Industrials: The Skeleton and the Muscle
Iron ore sits at the core of heavy industry because it is the essential input into steel, the material backbone of infrastructure and the capital stock. Under a Build the Future sub-theme the linkage is direct: infrastructure renewal, grid expansion, housing, and industrial investment are structurally steel-intensive, making iron ore an upstream beneficiary of any sustained capex cycle.
Industrials are the implementation layer, machinery, engineering, and systems that convert investment into operating infrastructure. The Global Infrastructure Hub estimates global infrastructure needs of roughly $94 trillion from 2016–2040, above what current trends would deliver, implying a long-duration runway for industrial capability rather than a one-off spending surge.
Current global infrastructure investment trajectories undershoot future needs
Source: Sarmaya Partners, Global Infrastructure Hub; As of Jan 2026
The above chart includes an estimated projection and is for informational purposes only. Projections are inherently limited and not guaranteed.
Conclusion: Why Build the Future is a Core Sub-Theme
Build the Future is a key sub-theme because it captures the engine of the Return to Tangibles era: growth is increasingly governed by physical constraints, long lead times, and multi-year investment cycles.
The asymmetry is compelling. Commodities remain depressed relative to equities, even as demand is pulled forward by electrification, newly formed geopolitical spheres of influence, infrastructure rebuilding, and national security investment. Copper illustrates the setup: demand expands while the supply response is structurally slow given scarce discoveries and long project timelines. Similar constraint dynamics appear in platinum (inventory drawdowns in a deficit regime) and in high-quality iron ore, where decarbonization pathways can shift the market from volume to grade and process bottlenecks.
Industrials and shipping complete the transmission mechanism, building the assets and moving the inputs. When any link in that chain is inelastic, scarcity tends to surface through tighter balances, higher volatility, and improved pricing power.
Disclosures
The content herein is intended for informational and educational purposes only. The content presented herein should not be considered investment advice, the basis for investment decisions, or a source of legal, tax, or accounting guidance. Investment markets inherently carry risks, and investment outcomes may deviate from initial investments. This does not constitute an offer to sell or solicit the purchase of units or shares in any product.
Statements about companies, securities, or other financial information represent personal beliefs and viewpoints of Sarmaya Partners or the respective third party. They do not constitute endorsements or investment recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Some statements herein may express future expectations and forward-looking views based on Sarmaya Partners’ current assumptions. These statements may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, potentially leading to different results than those implied or expressed. All content is subject to change without notice.
